Friday , 27 April 2018

Trouble for OPEC as non-OPEC supply rises by 0.28 mbpd

Crude oil supply from non-OPEC producing and exporting nations is set to rise by 0.28 million barrels per day, mbpd in 2018.

In its March report sent to The Daily,, OPEC indicated that: ‘’For 2018, non-OPEC supply is revised up by 0.28 mb/d, representing y-o-y growth of 1.66 mb/d, with total non-OPEC supply reading 59.53 mb/d.

‘’The upward revision is mainly due to higher-than-expected output in 1Q18 by 360 tb/d in OECD (Americas and Europe), FSU and China. OPEC NGLs are now expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following 0.17 mb/d a year earlier.

‘’According to secondary sources, OPEC crude production decreased by 77 tb/d in February 2018, averaging 32.19 mb/d. Product Markets and Refining Operations Product markets in all main trading hubs showed positive results last month, mainly driven by improved fundamentals.’’

The report stated that: ‘’In the US, and despite losses seen through most of the month, refinery margins showed outstanding seasonal y-o-y growth on strong support from gasoline and diesel stocks, which fell by 0.8 mb/d and 0.6 mb/d, respectively, in the last week of the month, due to refinery maintenance.

‘’In Europe, product markets strengthened, supported by higher gasoline demand and improved fuel oil export opportunities. Similarly, product markets in Asia recorded gains all across the barrel, except in the diesel complex.

‘’Support came from higher product demand, in line with seasonal trends, and higher heating requirements due to colder weather in northeast Asia, amid firm jet fuel demand. Tanker Market Tanker market spot freight rates continued to drop as seen in the previous months.

‘’Average dirty tanker spot freight rates declined further by 6% in February. Lower rates were seen in all reported dirty classes as limited tonnage demand and lengthy tonnage lists prevented rates from rising in several regions, despite some weather and ports delays.

‘’The clean tanker market was mostly quiet in February and spot freight rates were generally weak, due to holidays and insufficient activity despite cold weather and occasional delays.

‘’Oil Market Highlights ii OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – March 2018 Stock Movements Preliminary data for January showed that total OECD commercial stocks rose by 13.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,865 mb, which is 50 mb above the latest five-year average.

‘’Crude stocks indicated a surplus of 74 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 24 mb to the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell slightly in January to stand at 60 days, which is 0.6 days lower than the last five-year average.

‘’Balance of Supply and Demand In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is estimated to remain unchanged to stand at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2016 level. In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.6 mb/d, down by 0.2 mb/d from the previous assessment and 0.2 m/d lower than a year earlier.’’




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